Duplicitous or duped? Dion disaster
Duplicitous or duped?
Dion champions what would be an economic disaster
John Ivison in Ottawa
National Post
Thursday, February 01, 2007
Yesterday's column on the Liberal's environment strategy drew a riposte from the party's leader, Stephane Dion, who has written a letter to the National Post clarifying his position.
He said the key part of the comment he gave me in an interview last summer -- "In 2008, I will be part of Kyoto, but I will say to the world I don't think I willmake it" --is "in 2008."
He claims that the Conservative government's dismantling of the Liberal plan and the subsequent year of "inaction" means that if he Fdoes not become prime minister this year, the Liberals would find it hard to meet the target of reducing carbon emissions to 6% below 1990 levels by 2012.
"If we continue along the path of inaction the Conservative government has set out for us for even one more year, through 2007, it will make it very difficult for a future Liberal government to meet our 2012 commitments."
The contention that the Liberals could still meet the Kyoto targets if Mr. Dion becomes prime minister this year is important since it could become the key battleground in the next federal election. After the Conservatives' Damascan conversion on the environment, the government has brought back many of the Liberals' programs; is close to releasing a plan to regulate large final emitters; and has said it is in favour of a carbon trading market in Canada. It is likely that by the time an election rolls around, the only significant difference between the Conservative and Liberal environment plans will be the latter's commitment to meeting Canada's Kyoto commitment.
Yet anyone who has checked out Canada's greenhouse gas inventory -- and we must presume Mr. Dion has --knows that living up to Kyoto would be economically ruinous for this country.
Aldyen Donnelly is a B.C.- based emissions management consultant to large final emitters who believes that Canada should take action on greenhouse gas reductions in as aggressive a manner as the economy can tolerate, without reference to Kyoto.
"Under the Kyoto protocol, even if Canadians agreed to send at least $10-billion offshore to buy 'hot air' credits, it would still mean that every Canadian man, woman, child, building and industrial plant would have to consume at least 20% less energy
than they do today, starting next January. Then every time we have a baby, accept a new immigrant, build a new home or buy a new hybrid car, we would have to cut back energy consumption further to fit this new addition under our hard national cap.
"The only way industry can do its 'fair share' under the Kyoto cap is to shut down at least 20% of existing manufacturing capacity and jobs over the next 36 months," she said. Even if a new government closed all of Ontario's coal-fired power stations, shut down all oilsands activity in Alberta and slapped a moratorium on new development, it would address less than one-quarter of Canada's current "Kyoto gap."
Is Mr. Dion prepared to let the Canadian public in on this reality check, or is he deliberately misleading an electorate that polls suggest is in favour of Kyoto, even though two in three acknowledge they don't know anything about it?
The Liberal leader is not alone in taking advantage of the public's ignorance. Nathan Cullen, the NDP environment critic, said at a news conference this week that his party believes Canada is duty bound to meet its Kyoto targets and that doing so will benefit the country.
"We believe in creating the type of economy that allows us to achieve our Kyoto target and will create jobs and wealth for Canadians. It's a false debate to consider jobs versus the environment -- a debate I believe is long since over," he said.
In the long term, there may be some truth in the argument that Canada could prosper by adopting new technology that replaces a greenhouse gas emitting energy supply with a zero emissions energy supply. But the problem is the Kyoto deadline. Ms. Donnelly estimates it would cost $80-billion in new capital spending projects (including building retrofits, manufacturing plant upgrades and redesigning vehicle and engine production lines) to achieve the transformation Kyoto compliance would require.
"The problem is that even if we had the skilled labour and cash in place to start construction on all $80-billion in capital projects today, most of the new clean energy supply would not be delivering energy product to Canadian consumers before 2013," she said.
The Liberals issued a news release yesterday accusing Stephen Harper of being a climate change denier, accompanied by a number of the Prime Minister's own quotes. Many suggest that he was -- and likely still is -- unconvinced about the science of global warming. Yet with one quote, he hit the nail on the head: "As economic policy, the Kyoto accord is a disaster."
Either Mr. Dion knows this and is being duplicitous for political gain or, worse, he doesn't and has been duped by the environmental lobby. Neither explanation inspires much confidence in him as a future prime minister.
- - -
KYOTO
6% The Liberal government under Jean Chretien committed Canada to reducing its greenhouse gas emissions by 6%below 1990 levels by 2012.
35% The Conservative government said in December that Canada's emissions have grown so rapidly since the Kyoto commitment was made that the country is now 35% above its target for 2012.
$10-billion The Liberals have suggested spending $10-billion on "credits" from other countries that have excess room under their Kyoto targets.
20% Assuming that $10- billion was spent, emissions management consultant Aldyen Donnelly suggests that in order to meet the 2012 deadline, every Canadian resident, building and industrial plant would have to consume at least 20%less energy than they do today, starting next January.
$80-billion Ms. Donnelly also suggests it would cost $80-billion in new capital spending to create a "clean" energy supply that would allow Canada to comply with Kyoto targets over the long term.
Ran with factbox "Kyoto" which has been appended to the end of this story.
© National Post 2007
Copyright © 2007 CanWest Interactive, a division of CanWest MediaWorks Publications, Inc.. All rights reserved.
=0)document.write(unescape('%3C')+'\!-'+'-')
//-->
Dion champions what would be an economic disaster
John Ivison in Ottawa
National Post
Thursday, February 01, 2007
Yesterday's column on the Liberal's environment strategy drew a riposte from the party's leader, Stephane Dion, who has written a letter to the National Post clarifying his position.
He said the key part of the comment he gave me in an interview last summer -- "In 2008, I will be part of Kyoto, but I will say to the world I don't think I willmake it" --is "in 2008."
He claims that the Conservative government's dismantling of the Liberal plan and the subsequent year of "inaction" means that if he Fdoes not become prime minister this year, the Liberals would find it hard to meet the target of reducing carbon emissions to 6% below 1990 levels by 2012.
"If we continue along the path of inaction the Conservative government has set out for us for even one more year, through 2007, it will make it very difficult for a future Liberal government to meet our 2012 commitments."
The contention that the Liberals could still meet the Kyoto targets if Mr. Dion becomes prime minister this year is important since it could become the key battleground in the next federal election. After the Conservatives' Damascan conversion on the environment, the government has brought back many of the Liberals' programs; is close to releasing a plan to regulate large final emitters; and has said it is in favour of a carbon trading market in Canada. It is likely that by the time an election rolls around, the only significant difference between the Conservative and Liberal environment plans will be the latter's commitment to meeting Canada's Kyoto commitment.
Yet anyone who has checked out Canada's greenhouse gas inventory -- and we must presume Mr. Dion has --knows that living up to Kyoto would be economically ruinous for this country.
Aldyen Donnelly is a B.C.- based emissions management consultant to large final emitters who believes that Canada should take action on greenhouse gas reductions in as aggressive a manner as the economy can tolerate, without reference to Kyoto.
"Under the Kyoto protocol, even if Canadians agreed to send at least $10-billion offshore to buy 'hot air' credits, it would still mean that every Canadian man, woman, child, building and industrial plant would have to consume at least 20% less energy
than they do today, starting next January. Then every time we have a baby, accept a new immigrant, build a new home or buy a new hybrid car, we would have to cut back energy consumption further to fit this new addition under our hard national cap.
"The only way industry can do its 'fair share' under the Kyoto cap is to shut down at least 20% of existing manufacturing capacity and jobs over the next 36 months," she said. Even if a new government closed all of Ontario's coal-fired power stations, shut down all oilsands activity in Alberta and slapped a moratorium on new development, it would address less than one-quarter of Canada's current "Kyoto gap."
Is Mr. Dion prepared to let the Canadian public in on this reality check, or is he deliberately misleading an electorate that polls suggest is in favour of Kyoto, even though two in three acknowledge they don't know anything about it?
The Liberal leader is not alone in taking advantage of the public's ignorance. Nathan Cullen, the NDP environment critic, said at a news conference this week that his party believes Canada is duty bound to meet its Kyoto targets and that doing so will benefit the country.
"We believe in creating the type of economy that allows us to achieve our Kyoto target and will create jobs and wealth for Canadians. It's a false debate to consider jobs versus the environment -- a debate I believe is long since over," he said.
In the long term, there may be some truth in the argument that Canada could prosper by adopting new technology that replaces a greenhouse gas emitting energy supply with a zero emissions energy supply. But the problem is the Kyoto deadline. Ms. Donnelly estimates it would cost $80-billion in new capital spending projects (including building retrofits, manufacturing plant upgrades and redesigning vehicle and engine production lines) to achieve the transformation Kyoto compliance would require.
"The problem is that even if we had the skilled labour and cash in place to start construction on all $80-billion in capital projects today, most of the new clean energy supply would not be delivering energy product to Canadian consumers before 2013," she said.
The Liberals issued a news release yesterday accusing Stephen Harper of being a climate change denier, accompanied by a number of the Prime Minister's own quotes. Many suggest that he was -- and likely still is -- unconvinced about the science of global warming. Yet with one quote, he hit the nail on the head: "As economic policy, the Kyoto accord is a disaster."
Either Mr. Dion knows this and is being duplicitous for political gain or, worse, he doesn't and has been duped by the environmental lobby. Neither explanation inspires much confidence in him as a future prime minister.
- - -
KYOTO
6% The Liberal government under Jean Chretien committed Canada to reducing its greenhouse gas emissions by 6%below 1990 levels by 2012.
35% The Conservative government said in December that Canada's emissions have grown so rapidly since the Kyoto commitment was made that the country is now 35% above its target for 2012.
$10-billion The Liberals have suggested spending $10-billion on "credits" from other countries that have excess room under their Kyoto targets.
20% Assuming that $10- billion was spent, emissions management consultant Aldyen Donnelly suggests that in order to meet the 2012 deadline, every Canadian resident, building and industrial plant would have to consume at least 20%less energy than they do today, starting next January.
$80-billion Ms. Donnelly also suggests it would cost $80-billion in new capital spending to create a "clean" energy supply that would allow Canada to comply with Kyoto targets over the long term.
Ran with factbox "Kyoto" which has been appended to the end of this story.
© National Post 2007
Copyright © 2007 CanWest Interactive, a division of CanWest MediaWorks Publications, Inc.. All rights reserved.
=0)document.write(unescape('%3C')+'\!-'+'-')
//-->
posted by Gerry Surtees at Tuesday, February 13, 2007
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